Dignity - Sizing up the Competition

I think Dignity has a really good shot of being the #1 album in the USA in it's first week - but there is definitely some strong competition:

Timbaland - Timbaland Presents Shock Value
This might be Dignity's biggest competition. Even though Timbaland hasn't been a huge commercial seller in the past, he is one of the hottest artists out there right now, and his collaborations with Nelly Furtado and Justin Timberlake probably have gained him a lot of new fans. There is a commercial that is running constantly on TV touting this CD as "The most creative album of the century."

Martina McBride - Waking Up Laughing
This might be the sleeper of the group. I haven't heard many people talking about this album, but Martina McBride is one of the biggest country stars out there, and her last 3 albums have all been in the top 10. Her last CD sold just over 185,000 copies in it's first week and debuted at #3. If she can improve on that sales number just a little bit she could be in the running for the number 1 spot.

Tim McGraw - Let It Go
This album came out last week, and based on 1 day sales is estimated to sell about 350,000 copies and will be the #1 album in the week before Dignity comes out. Usually sales fall off significantly from the first to second week, so I am expecting this album to sell about 200-220k in it's second week, which will be Dignity's first week.

Various Artists - Now 24
Another album that came out the week before Dignity, but still will provide some competition. It is expected to sell around 180-200k in it's first week, and I don't really expect that to fall off very much in the second week, because people don't generally run out to buy the Now albums, but they buy them eventually. In Dignity's first week I expect that Now 24 will sell somewhere in the area of 175,000 with a chance to go slightly higher.

Paul Wall - Get Money, Stay True
Paul Wall's last album went to #1 on the Billboard 200 selling just over 175,000 copies. I don't think that this new album will sell as much, so it will be an uphill battle to reach number 1 again.

Mike Jones - The American Dream
This album could have been some competition for Hilary, but it looks like the release date has been pushed back until May.

So what does this mean? Well all three of Hilary Duff's previous albums sold around 200,000 copies in their first week. I think Dignity will have to do slightly better to reach number 1. I expect at least one of the albums that I mentioned will break the 200k mark next week, so if Dignity is going to be the #1 album it will almost definitely need to sell over 200,000 and might even need to sell closer to 250,000. So can Dignity sell that many copies? I think it probably can, but I just don't know. On one hand Dignity seems to be getting a lot of good buzz, and many Hilary fans have been waiting a long time for this album. On the other hand it's been a while since Hilary has released new music and I'm wondering if she still has the loyal fanbase that she once did. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Thanks to Hits Daily Double for some of the sales numbers that I used.

Tags: Hilary Duff, Dignity, Timbaland, Martina McBride, Tim McGraw, Paul Wall, Mike Jones